BANGKOK — The day Chonthicha Jangrew rose to give a public speech in 2021 about Thailand’s politically powerful monarchy, she was prepared to go to jail.

“It’s something I already knew was going to happen,” the 31-year-old lawmaker said in an interview with NPR in May. It was days after she was sentenced to two years in prison for violating Thailand’s draconian majesty law, which criminalizes criticism of the royal institution.

Speaking at a protest, she questioned a decision by the then-junta to give the king direct ownership of the multibillion-dollar royal assets, which had previously been controlled by an ostensibly independent body.

The charge carries a prison term of three to 15 years; Chonthicha received the minimum sentence of three years, one of which was commuted. But while she was expecting the verdict, she got shivers down her spine when she heard it.

“It’s still very hard to accept it. I feel like one foot is already in jail,” said Chonthicha, who is out on bail while appealing the sentence. “I’m really disappointed in the court, in the judge. I thought maybe they would understand at some point.”

In recent years, Thailand has taken tentative steps back towards democracy, following a period of political chaos in which three elected governments were ousted in eight years, followed by ten years of military rule. But a flurry of court challenges has raised the specter of another crisis – with majesty at the fore.

Chonthicha’s political party, the Move Forward Party, is facing dissolution for its promise to reform the majesty law, which the Constitutional Court has already ruled amounts to trying to overthrow the monarchy.

The Progressive Pro-Democracy Party won the most seats in parliament in last year’s election, sweeping in Chonthicha and other youth activists, but was blocked from forming a government by the military-appointed Senate.

At the same time, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, overthrown in a military coup in 2006, is facing his own majesty walk. His populist Pheu Thai Party formed a government last year in cooperation with conservative and military parties, turning former political enemies into uneasy coalition partners.

Thaksin returned to Thailand after 15 years in exile, leading many to believe a deal had been struck, but his latest court case has cast doubt on the durability of the fragile coalition.

“It’s clear that when Pheu Thai formed a coalition with the conservative parties, some sort of grand compromise had been reached,” said Ken Lohatepanont, a political analyst and graduate student in the Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan.

“But since we don’t actually know all the details of this deal, it’s hard to speculate on exactly what Thaksin did that led to the compromise coming under pressure. Perhaps it was Thaksin’s increased political activity in recent months,” he said.

Pro-military figures have accused Thaksin of exerting undue influence over Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, whom he himself faces military-related attempts to remove him from office.

Lohatepanont said “another theory” is that the increasing pressure on Pheu Thai is “conservative attempts to retain some bargaining power over Thaksin now that many of their institutional privileges, particularly the Senate’s ability to elect a prime minister, have disappeared.”

Some undemocratic reforms introduced by the 2017 military constitution have now expired, including the Senate’s role in voting for the prime minister. Thavisin has said he will consider constitutional reform and the military-backed establishment may hope to maintain influence over that process.

But the real threat to the Conservative establishment is the Move Forward Party. Since the military senate is no longer involved in the election of the prime minister, Move Forward is expected to do so cruise to victory in the next election in 2027 — if it is allowed to run at all.

Former party leader Pita Limjaroenrat pointed out that Move Forward’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, disbanded in 2020 after finishing third in the 2019 election, but it turned out to be only a “short hiccup”. The movement reorganized under the Move Forward banner and did even better in the next election.

“It is worth noting that our movement is more than just a political party or a few leaders – it is a set of ideas that has brought together millions of people,” he said, adding that the movement can continue to grow without him at the helm.

Pita said the party’s widespread popularity “is based on hard work, politics and most importantly, political integrity.” But he admitted that political pressure has only made the party stronger.

“Various legal harassments against us can boomerang, create anger, rage or sympathy and gather support for us,” he said. “History shows that legal action against our party has often increased public support by highlighting perceived injustices.”

A similar pattern has played out with lèse-majesté. A youth activist charged under the law, who goes by the name Sainam, said he was first inspired to join protests because he wanted to see the law reformed. He said he believes the more the law is used against activists, the more people dislike it.

“I think Thais now want more freedom of speech. They know more and they learn more, so they want more rights that they didn’t know they could have,” said the 20-year-old.

Both Sainam and Chonthicha said they oppose the use of the law in any case, but worry that Thaksin could receive preferential treatment due to backroom political negotiations.

“Many of my friends who cannot afford to flee this country are not given the right to redemption, but Thaksin is given the right to redemption,” Sainam said.

In May, 28-year-old activist Netiporn “Bung” Sanesangkhom died during a hunger strike protesting her detention for lèse-majesté.

Chonthicha had known Bung since the 2021 mass demonstrations, when she taught her how to legally notify the police to hold a public protest.

Chonthicha said Bung had a reputation for being “aggressive” but was really just “very sensitive” and “impatient” when it came to issues of inequality, injustice or discrimination.

“I told her about my stories when I was incarcerated in 2015 in Bangkok Women’s Prison,” where she was sexually harassed and treated “like a slave,” she said. When Bung heard these stories, he “cried like a baby,” Chonthicha said.

“She (Bung) said she doesn’t want anyone to face the same thing I did and she just wants to change the country so we can live with dignity.”

Chonthicha had been in Germany with Pita when Bung died, but came back for his funeral.

“On the last day of her funeral, her sister came to me and she told me that Bung always mentioned and talked about me, that I tried to support her. Her sister told me, please stand up for Bung to find justice for her and her family ”, she recalled.

Chonthicha said that despite the swell of public opinion, change is never guaranteed.

“Change will only come if we do something,” she said, pointing to the long fight for same-sex marriage, which this year passed both legislative chambers.

“It didn’t just happen because the elite or the establishment are very nice to us and give us the rights we have, it’s because we fight for it,” she said.

The day before her sentencing, Chonthicha had dinner with her family and assured them that everything would be fine. These days they try not to talk about politics. The daughter of a soldier, Chonthicha jokes that she was a “bad child” for getting involved in activism against her parents’ wishes.

She said in the beginning her parents tried to stop her from going out to the protests and they argued a lot.

“I told them that nobody really wants to go out on the street. It’s not fun at all. It’s hot and dangerous, we could end up in jail or get hit by the police,” she said.

“But we have to do it because the older generation gave us this kind of country. You brought this kind of society forward, so that’s why we have to stand up to fight. I don’t want to hand over this kind of country and society to my children.”

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